Global Trade Amidst Russia -Ukraine War

The war between Ukraine and Russia has yet again put the global economy at the verge of collapsing even before the world fully recovers from disruptions caused by the COVID19 pandemic. For the past two years, unexpected events have significantly changed the way we do our things. The International Monetary Fund has warned that the fight between Russia and Ukraine could pose a great economic threat that could hurt the anticipated post-covid 19 recoveries. Global economy profoundly remains affected by the negative impact of the pandemic. However, there is slight stability in the second half of 2021 amid Omicron that threw the global markets into a frenzy.

Countries that have economic links with Ukraine and Russia are at particular risk of scarcity and supply disruption and are most affected by the increasing commodity supply. Recently the US government promised to sanction Russia for potential retaliation and this has already seen a push down of stock markets and driven up gas and oil prices. This clash could cause dizzying spikes in energy and food prices, fuel inflation fears and spook investors, a combination that threatens investment and growth in economies around the world.

For Kenya’s economy alone Kenyans have been forced to dig deeper into their pockets because of the cost of fuel due to the strengthening of the dollar relative to Kenya shillings meaning that the country will spend more on imports. This has seen the cost of fuel rise by ksh.5 and a total jump in oil prices which has hit $100 per barrel.

The world’s major economies, from Russia to the US are experiencing a multi-year high in inflation levels due to shortages in the supply of commodities whose demand is growing because of lifting covid-19 restrictions. For Kenya, food prices are expected to rise while imports will suffer delay in delivery. Manufacturing Industries may experience imported inflation which could put further pressure on the shilling against the US dollar. To mitigate the ongoing war the European Union should speedily find a solution to the war to salvage the already suffering world economy caused by Covid -19 pandemic.

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